Water AlliesTier 1

at Brood en Spelen Regionals

decks

4 (14.3% of field)

matches (non-mirror)

19 15-2-2

overall winrate

84.2%

ELO-adjusted winrate

74.6% avg ELO +9.5 per match

expected value

64.3% share-weighted (raw)

EV (ELO-adj)

62.4% share-weighted (skill-controlled)

Pilot Skill ↑ top

mean ELO 1355 · median 1328 · range 1244–1520 (4 pilots with an ELO rating)

1018 Q1 1189 Q3 1398 1520

50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).

Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent	Their share	Matches	W-L-D	Raw WR	Shrunk WR	Adj WR	ELO Δ/match
Fire Erupting	17.9%	8	7-1-0	87.5%	75.0%	74.7%	+11.8
Wind Allies	17.9%	2	2-0-0	100.0%	66.7%	64.1%	+13.6
Fire Arcane	10.7%	3	2-1-0	66.7%	57.1%	53.4%	+2.6
Fire Crux Hybrid	10.7%	2	1-0-1	75.0%	58.3%	54.7%	+4.5
Fire Crux Mage	10.7%	2	2-0-0	100.0%	66.7%	65.7%	+15.1
Fire Luxem Assassin	7.1%	1	0-0-1	50.0%	50.0%	48.9%	-1.8
Fire Umbra Ranger	3.6%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Umbra Ranger	3.6%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Beast	3.6%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Crux Mage	3.6%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	59.1%	+14.5

Decklists · 4 from this event

The 4 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Seasprite Diver, Storm of Thorns. Losers more often ran: Esteemed Knight, Morgan, Soul Guide, Freezing Hail.

↑ Played more by winners

Seasprite Diver

Winning decks ran 3.0 copies on average, losing decks 0.7.

Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.

Storm of Thorns

Winning decks ran 3.0 copies on average, losing decks 0.0.

Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.

↓ Played more by losers

Esteemed Knight

Losing decks ran 4.0 copies on average, winning decks 0.0.

Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.

Morgan, Soul Guide

Losing decks ran 3.0 copies on average, winning decks 0.7.

Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.

Freezing Hail

Losing decks ran 3.3 copies on average, winning decks 2.7.

Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.

Show all 63 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 58 held back from the grid above)

Card	Edge	In winner	In loser	Same
Esteemed Knight	-1.00	0	3	0
Seasprite Diver	+1.00	3	0	0
Storm of Thorns	+1.00	3	0	0
Morgan, Soul Guide	-1.00	0	3	0
Water Resonance Bauble	+0.67	2	0	1
Banner Knight	-0.67	0	2	0
Dungeon Guide	-0.67	0	2	1
Ghosts of Pendragon	-0.67	0	2	0
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa	-0.67	0	2	1
Lorraine, Spirit Ruler	-0.67	0	2	0
Sword of Seeking	-0.67	0	2	0
Deflecting Edge	-0.67	0	2	0
Fracturize	-0.67	0	2	1
Savage Slash	-0.67	0	2	0
Imperial Recruit	-0.67	0	2	0
Lorraine, Blademaster	-0.67	0	2	0
Safeguard Amulet	-0.67	0	2	1
Drawn Blade	-0.67	0	2	0
Lorraine, Wandering Warrior	-0.67	0	2	0
Corhazi Trapper	-0.67	0	2	1
Diffusive Block	+0.67	2	0	0
Vaporjet Shieldbearer	+0.67	2	0	0
Heavy Swing	+0.67	2	0	0
Tonoris, Might of Humanity	+0.67	2	0	0
Tonoris, Genesis Aegis	+0.67	2	0	0
Allied Warpriestess	+0.67	2	0	0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint	+0.67	2	0	0
Smoke Bombs	+0.67	2	0	0
Tonoris, Lone Mercenary	+0.67	2	0	0
Stalwart Shieldmate	+0.67	2	0	0
Scavenging Raccoon	+0.67	2	0	0
Fast Cure	+0.67	2	0	0
Bulwark Sword	+0.67	2	0	0
Academy Guide	+0.67	2	0	0
Evasive Maneuvers	+0.33	1	0	0
Seeker's Rifle	+0.33	1	0	0
Trained Sharpshooter	+0.33	1	0	0
Viridian Protective Trinket	-0.33	0	1	2
Snow Fairy	+0.33	1	0	2
Blastshot Pump	+0.33	1	0	0
Diana, Keen Huntress	+0.33	1	0	0
Shadow's Twin	+0.33	1	0	0
Diana, Duskstalker	+0.33	1	0	0
Seeking Shot	+0.33	1	0	0
Tasershot	+0.33	1	0	0
Diana, Deadly Duelist	+0.33	1	0	0
Freezing Hail	-0.33	1	2	0
Cascading Round	+0.33	1	0	0
Tariff Ring	-0.33	0	1	2
Lunete, Frostbinder Priest	+0.33	1	0	2
Bauble of Abundance	+0.33	1	0	0
Take Aim	+0.33	1	0	0
Tithe Proclamation	+0.33	1	0	1
Zander, Deft Executor	-0.33	0	1	0
Eye of Argus	-0.33	0	1	0
Nia, Mistveiled Scout	-0.33	0	1	0
Intrepid Highwayman	-0.33	0	1	0
Zander, Corhazi's Chosen	-0.33	0	1	0
Drowned Cut	-0.33	0	1	0
Thieving Cut	-0.33	0	1	0
Poisoned Dagger	-0.33	0	1	0
Zander, Prepared Scout	-0.33	0	1	0
Wind Resonance Bauble	+0.00	1	1	0

JSON: /api/events/569/archetypes/Water Allies